A consumer conundrum

Consumer-conundrum

We start this week’s Briefing with a question. Rising inflation and April’s increase in National Insurance Contributions (NICs) are set to squeeze consumer spending power hard. Given that the average person in work is likely to earn less, after inflation, than last year, what do you think will happen to consumer spending this year? Will it decline, stay roughly the same, or rise?

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Posted on 31/01/2022

Brexit, the first year

Brexit

Brexit proper, the UK’s departure from the EU’s single market a year ago, passed without major incident. Borders continued to work and lorries kept moving.

Yet beneath the surface, Brexit is reshaping patterns of trade. What happened at our borders is a metaphor for Brexit as a whole. There have been significant effects, but the most dramatic, and headline-worthy, predictions on both sides of the Brexit argument have not been realised.

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Posted on 24/01/2022

The global economy in 2022

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2022 should be the year in which the developed world learns to live with COVID-19. High levels of vaccinations have helped weaken the link between case rates and deaths in richer countries. Despite spreading at lightning speed and generating record case rates, the Omicron variant has been less damaging to health than previous waves.

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Posted on 17/01/2022

Going for growth

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A personal view from Ian Stewart, Deloitte's Chief Economist in the UK. To subscribe or view past editions google 'Deloitte Monday Briefing'.

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Posted on 10/01/2022

Omicron economics and our Christmas reading list

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For the last ten years this has been the week in which we release our Christmas reading list. This year is no different, but we start on a sombre note, with an assessment of how the rapid spread of the Omicron variant could affect public health and the UK economy over the coming months.

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Posted on 13/12/2021

Christmas quiz


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Our Christmas quiz covers an eclectic mix of topics, many related to economics and business. The answers and a brief explanation of the factors at work are below each question.

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Posted on 06/12/2021

Omicron assessed

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It will take weeks to establish how great a risk the Omicron variant poses. The hope is that, like the Beta (first documented in South Africa) and Gamma (Brazil) variants before it, Omicron will fail to become dominant. Those earlier variants were unable to outcompete the Alpha (UK/Kent) and now the dominant Delta (India) variant.

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Posted on 29/11/2021

A slower-growth China

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A New Winter of Discontent? Join us for a webinar this Wednesday morning where I’ll be discussing with a panel of Deloitte specialists, along with Jaguar Land Rover’s finance director, Chris Tye, whether rising inflation, supply bottlenecks and labour shortages mean we are heading for a new Winter of Discontent.
Timing: Wednesday, 24 November 2021, 08:30-10:00 GMT
Register here

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Posted on 22/11/2021

Interest rate rises, slowly does it

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A year, to paraphrase Harold Wilson, is an eternity in economics. This time last year inflation was on its back and Central Banks were fretting about the risk of deflation. Now Central Banks have the opposite problem, with supply shortages and energy prices propelling inflation to uncomfortably high levels. As with so many trends, good and bad, America leads. Last week financial markets were shaken by news that US inflation had risen to 6.2%, the highest level in 30 years.

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Posted on 15/11/2021

O worker, where art thou?

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A New Winter of Discontent? Join us for a Deloitte Academy webinar where I’ll be discussing with Deloitte specialists, Raoul Ruparel and Jurga McCluskey, and Jaguar Land Rover’s finance director, Chris Tye, whether rising inflation, supply bottlenecks and labour shortages presage a new Winter of Discontent – and what organisations can do about it.
Timing: Wednesday, 24 November 2021, 08:30-10:00 GMT
Register at: https://deloitte.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_oJT4MeihSA6gSlgBFHVAKw

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Posted on 08/11/2021