The Monday Briefing
A succinct and eclectic weekly take on economics and finance from Ian Stewart, Deloitte's Chief Economist in the UK
The outlook for UK growth
Last week’s UK GDP data underscored the scale of the economic damage wrought by the COVID-19 lockdown. The economy contracted by 2% in the first quarter of 2020, the sharpest quarterly contraction since the 2008 financial crisis.
Emerging from the lockdown
Many European countries have started easing the lockdowns they imposed in March to contain the spread of COVID-19. Last night UK prime minister Boris Johnson laid out what he described as a “conditional plan” for the gradual easing of the UK’s lockdown.
Deloitte CFO survey: Crash, slow recovery, lasting change
Today’s briefing summarises the findings of the latest Deloitte survey of Chief Financial Officers which was released overnight. The full report is available at: https://www2.deloitte.com/uk/en/pages/finance/articles/deloitte-cfo-survey.html
Growth beyond the downturn
The world faces a major contraction in economic activity. The scale of the likely decline, and the timing and magnitude of any upturn, are hotly debated. But of even greater importance are the long-term effects of the crisis.
Equities rally into the downturn
The latest release of our chart book “The COVID-19 crisis: Economic impact and policy responses”, is available here: https://blogs.deloitte.co.uk/mondaybriefing/2020
/04/covid-19-crisis-economic-impact-and-policy-responses-16-apr-2020.html. The report aims to provide a graphical overview of the key economic developments of the COVID-19 crisis. Do feel free to use any of the charts in your own presentations.
2020 on a 100-year view
Every generation has its own reference points, the big events through which lives are lived. The same is true of economists. For them the lows of the economic cycle are remembered by shorthand – the GFC, the dotcom boom, the early-90s recession and so on. As economists contemplate the economic effects of COVID-19 they are having to look much further back in history for precedents. This week’s briefing assesses how UK growth through to the end of next year is likely to compare with the ups and the downs of last 120 years.
Some (almost) knowns
The global financial crisis of 2008-09 ended a period of good and predictable growth for the world economy. In its wake we have seen elevated political and economic uncertainty, and weaker growth. Yet today that looks like a golden era. In just a month, the world has been pitched into a deep downturn, one that the head of the International Monetary Fund says will be “way worse” than the global financial crisis. The uncertainties are legion. So what can one say with a reasonable degree of confidence? Here are four, very subjective ones, that occur to me.
Lessons from past crises
Today we are launching our “The COVID-19 crisis: Economic impact and policy responses” chart book, which is available here: https://blogs.deloitte.co.uk/mondaybriefing/2020
/03/the-covid-19-crisis-economic-impact-and-policy-responses.html. The report will be updated weekly and aims to provide a graphical overview of the key economic developments of the COVID-19 crisis. Do feel free to use any of the charts in your own presentations.