Monetary policy, inflation in The Monday Briefing
- Select a blog category
Join our next fortnightly COVID-19 webinar on Thursday, 3 December, at 13:00 GMT. We will discuss the impact of COVID-19 on the future of the city and what this means for the high street. Register here: https://event.webcasts.com/starthere.jsp?ei=1365454&tp_key=8f4d835e66&sti=mmb
Last week the UK chancellor, Rishi Sunak, warned that the UK’s “economic emergency has only just begun”. This struck me as overly pessimistic. While it’s not hard to think of things that could go wrong, some things are going right. Here are three of them, drawing on last week’s spending review and the accompanying report from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR).
First, a return to growth is in sight. The OBR forecasts that the economy will expand by a hefty 5.5% in 2021 and 6.6% in 2022. Agreed, it will take almost two years for the economy to return to pre-crisis levels of GDP. But this represents a faster recovery than after the global financial crisis, when it took five years to regain lost ground. There are two obvious risks. A no-deal Brexit would, the OBR estimate, knock 2.0% off growth next year; delays to, or failures in, vaccines could hit growth much harder. But, equally, a successful and swift deployment of vaccines could turbocharge the recovery.
Faced with choosing to write about the US elections or the lockdown in England in this week’s briefing we are doing the obvious thing and covering both.
Join our next fortnightly COVID-19 webinar, focussing on building resilience, on Thursday, 5 November, at 13:00 GMT: https://event.webcasts.com/starthere.jsp?ei=1365454&tp_key=8f4d835e66&sti=mmb
Governments around the world have responded to the pandemic by borrowing, and spending, on a vast scale, equivalent to 12% of world GDP. Twelve years ago, in the financial crisis, monetary policy did the heavy lifting in supporting growth. Now, with interest rates near zero, the burden has fallen on fiscal policy.
Join our next fortnightly COVID-19 webinar on Thursday, 22 October at 13:00, BST where we will cover public health and economic developments in China, Germany and the UK. Register for this and our upcoming webinars: https://event.webcasts.com/starthere.jsp?ei=1365454&tp_key=8f4d835e66
The COVID-19 Economics Monitor provides a succinct, easy-to-navigate guide to the global health, economic and financial impacts of the pandemic: https://www2.deloitte.com/uk/en/pages/
Governments across Europe face a hard balance between public health and economic activity as they combat a resurgence in COVID-19 cases.
Join our next COVID-19 webinar this Thursday 24 September, 13:00 BST with our regular speakers Ian Stewart and Karen Taylor assessing where we stand on the economy and public health. We will also be joined by Rick Lester, COO, Risk Advisory, and Paul Lee, global head of TMT research, discussing the return to work and how it’s been assisted by technology. To register for this 30-minute webinar please visit: https://ukinfo.deloitte.com/
A personal view from Ian Stewart, Deloitte's Chief Economist in the UK. To subscribe and/or view previous editions just google 'Deloitte Monday Briefing'.
Following a break over the summer our COVID-19 webinar returns this Thursday, 10 September, at 13:00 BST. Our regular presenters, Ian Stewart and Karen Taylor, will assess where we stand on the economy and public health as we head into the final quarter of the year. To register for this 30-minute webinar please visit: https://ukinfo.deloitte.com/kR0Ew0250MA02GQmQr01U0I
In their response to the pandemic, Western governments have learned and applied many of the lessons of past crises.
Future historians are likely to conclude that a phase of breakneck globalisation that started in the 1970s drew to an end in the wake of the financial crisis 12 years ago. They will surely see the 2020 pandemic as having dealt a further, heavy blow to globalisation.