The Monday Briefing

Monetary policy, inflation in The Monday Briefing

Christmas quiz


Our Christmas quiz covers an eclectic mix of topics, many related to economics and business. The answers and a brief explanation of the factors at work are below each question.

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Posted on 06/12/2021

A slower-growth China


A New Winter of Discontent? Join us for a webinar this Wednesday morning where I’ll be discussing with a panel of Deloitte specialists, along with Jaguar Land Rover’s finance director, Chris Tye, whether rising inflation, supply bottlenecks and labour shortages mean we are heading for a new Winter of Discontent.
Timing: Wednesday, 24 November 2021, 08:30-10:00 GMT
Register here

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Posted on 22/11/2021

Interest rate rises, slowly does it


A year, to paraphrase Harold Wilson, is an eternity in economics. This time last year inflation was on its back and Central Banks were fretting about the risk of deflation. Now Central Banks have the opposite problem, with supply shortages and energy prices propelling inflation to uncomfortably high levels. As with so many trends, good and bad, America leads. Last week financial markets were shaken by news that US inflation had risen to 6.2%, the highest level in 30 years.

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Posted on 15/11/2021

O worker, where art thou?


A New Winter of Discontent? Join us for a Deloitte Academy webinar where I’ll be discussing with Deloitte specialists, Raoul Ruparel and Jurga McCluskey, and Jaguar Land Rover’s finance director, Chris Tye, whether rising inflation, supply bottlenecks and labour shortages presage a new Winter of Discontent – and what organisations can do about it.
Timing: Wednesday, 24 November 2021, 08:30-10:00 GMT
Register at:

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Posted on 08/11/2021

From neo-liberalism to neo-statism


Last week’s UK Budget was one of the most consequential of recent decades. The small state, low tax approach of successive Conservative chancellors has gone into reverse. This is a policy choice, not something forced on the government by the demands of the pandemic. The government has made a decision to opt for a bigger state funded by raising taxes’ share of GDP to the highest levels since the post-war Atlee government.

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Posted on 01/11/2021

Investment is the focus


Deloitte’s latest survey of UK Chief Financial Officers, released overnight, shines light on the plans of Britain’s largest corporates. The full report is available at:

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Posted on 18/10/2021

Liquidity and change drive M&A

The return of risk appetite to the boardroom, boosted by vaccine rollouts and strong growth over the summer, has led to a surge in global mergers and acquisitions activity. Around $4tn of deals have been announced since the start of the year, putting 2021 on track to break the previous record set shortly before the financial crisis (strong though these numbers are, the volume of activity, if adjusted for growth in equity values, is below the previous peak).

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Posted on 11/10/2021

Gas crunch – higher prices, lower growth


The economic dislocations caused by the pandemic show no sign of abating. After a summer of eye-watering used car prices, milkshake and chicken shortages, now come soaring gas and electricity costs.

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Posted on 27/09/2021

Inflation: Please, not back to the 1970s


In the wake of a blisteringly fast economic recovery have come bottlenecks, supply shortages and inflation. Over the summer the US Federal Reserve’s favoured measure of inflation hit the highest levels in almost 30 years. Unexpected though it is, today’s inflation surge is widely seen as temporary.

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Posted on 20/09/2021

Semiconductors to milkshake shortages: What to do about supply chains


The dislocation between supply and demand created by the pandemic is starting to weigh on the recovery. Growth is being held back by supply problems, labour shortages and rising prices. Along with the effects of the Delta variant, such supply issues led to a sharp drop in China’s Caixin index of service activity in August, leaving the sector contracting for the first time since COVID-19 hit early last year. In the US Friday’s payroll data, one of the most important economic releases of the month, came in far below market expectations. Respondents to the UK manufacturing PMI index blamed shortages of materials, shipping capacity and staff for decelerating output growth in August.

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Posted on 06/09/2021