Monetary policy, inflation in The Monday Briefing
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Last week data showed that the number of people in employment in the UK has fallen by 56,000. Long the standout success in Britain’s recovery the jobs market is feeling the chill winds of weaker growth. Brexit has played a role, but weakening UK activity is small part of a wider, global story.
The synchronised economic upswing of 2016-18, which lifted rich and developing countries alike, has gone into reverse. Not only are Germany, Britain and the US cooling; so too are India, China and Russia.
On the face of it the latest forecasts from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) look fairly reassuring. They show the global economy growing by 3.0% this year, down from 3.6% last year and the weakest reading since the financial crisis, before picking up to 3.4% in 2020.
Globalisation has been one of the defining features of the modern era. It has been marked by the movement of goods, services, ideas, capital and people through a plethora of cross-border networks.
This morning we are launching our third quarter “Global economy in charts” report, available here – https://blogs.deloitte.co.uk/mondaybriefing/2019/09/global-economy-in-charts-q3-2019.html
London is a major force in the UK economy, accounting for between a quarter and a third of UK output, depending on how the boundaries are drawn. And London is, by a multiple of over seven, the UK’s most populous city.
The global economy has been slowing for some time. The question is whether we are heading for a soft landing or something worse.
Economists went into 2019 forecasting a slowdown in global growth. That slowdown has come faster than expected. Alarmed by the speed of the downturn, the US Federal Reserve and European Central Bank have switched from tightening monetary policy to easing.
The combination of slower growth and easier policy has elicited very different responses from business and financial markets.
Today we are launching our quarterly “UK corporate environment” chart book, which is available here: https://blogs.deloitte.co.uk/mondaybriefing/
2019/07/uk-corporate-environment.html. The report aims to provide a graphical summary of the key trends and themes shaping the UK corporate sector, setting the context to the CFO survey. We will be developing and refining the chart book and welcome your feedback. Do feel free to use any of the charts in your own presentations and drop my colleague Tom Simmons a line at email@example.com with ideas and comments.
At the beginning of this year equity markets were reeling from a sell-off driven by fears over global growth and rising US interest rates.
It is commonplace to say that the pace of technological change is speeding up. From Twitter to online shopping our everyday lives are, apparently, being transformed.