Climate change and the threat to financial stability

Deloitte-uk-climate-change-and-the-threat-to-financial-stability

Last month the governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, issued a stark warning about the impact of climate change: “If…companies and industries fail to adjust to this new world, they will fail to exist”. Mr Carney’s statement was co-signed by the chair of the Network for Greening the Financial System, a coalition of 36 central banks, including the People’s Bank of China. The Network helps central banks measure and mitigate the risks to the financial sector posed by climate change. Last month’s statement signals that climate change has well and truly arrived as an issue for central bankers.

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Posted on 07/05/2019

Global growth update

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Today’s Briefing looks at the state of global activity one-third the way through the year.

Economists went into 2019 expecting global growth to slow modestly and that’s just what has happened. The slowdown is being driven largely by advanced economies, especially the euro area.

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Posted on 29/04/2019

Human capital, where the UK stands

Deloitte-uk-human-capital

Most conversations about the UK’s poor productivity record eventually turn to education and skills. Everyone agrees that education is vital but there is more debate about the relative value of different models and types of education. This week’s Briefing offers some thoughts on how the UK system compares to others and looks at some of the salient characteristics of the British model.

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Posted on 23/04/2019

Deloitte CFO Survey: The dash for cash

Deloitte-uk-survey-account

Today’s Briefing summarises the findings of the latest Deloitte Survey of Chief Financial Officers which was released overnight. The full report is available at: https://www2.deloitte.com/uk/en/pages/finance/articles/deloitte-cfo-survey.html

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Posted on 15/04/2019

Navigating the China slowdown

Chinese-coin

China’s economic transformation in the last four decades is one of the great economic success stories of modern history. Through liberalisation and opening up to trade China was able to grow by 10% a year between 1980 and 2018. Its economy expanded by a factor of 30 and it easily dodged recession during the global financial crisis. There is no precedent in history for an economy of this size growing at such a rate for so long.

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Posted on 01/04/2019

Globalisation déjà vu

Compass

This morning we are launching our quarterly “Global Economy in Charts” report, a 20-page slide deck, available here. Created by my colleague Debo, the report examines the big global macro trends and challenges. Charts can be cut and pasted into your own reports. Do drop Debo a line at dde@deloitte.co.uk with ideas and comments.

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Posted on 25/03/2019

Global Economy in Charts

Download the charts in pdf format here
Download the charts in powerpoint via SlideShare here

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Posted on 25/03/2019

Brexit latest and thoughts on a slower growth world

Deloitte-uk-money-piled-up

With Brexit uncertainty undimmed we start this week’s Briefing with a short recap on the economics of leaving the EU.

The consensus among economists is that the UK will grow by 1.3% this year and 1.5% next year. With activity slowing across the world, particularly in the euro area, and the UK scheduled to leave the EU, growth at these rates looks pretty respectable. Given the uncertainties facing the UK it’s perhaps surprising that its economy is expected to outpace Italy’s or Germany’s this year.

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Posted on 18/03/2019

Alarm bells ring for the euro area

Alarm

We were taken by surprise last week by the scale of the downgrade to the OECD’s latest forecast for German growth. The OECD now thinks that the German economy will grow by just 0.7% in 2019. This is a big reversal of fortune; a year ago the thinking among economists was that Germany would grow by around 2.0%. At 0.7% German growth would be slower than the euro area as a whole (1.0%) and even the Brexit-embattled UK (0.8%).

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Posted on 11/03/2019

How to reboot growth

Japan

The financial crisis of 2008-09 pitched Western economies on to a lower growth path. In recent years growth across the industrialised world has run well below the rates seen in the years before the financial crisis.

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Posted on 11/02/2019