Global economics in The Monday Briefing
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Investment flows between regions and nations date back to the ancient empires and civilisations. But it was not until the nineteenth century, during a period of rapid globalisation and industrialisation, that modern foreign direct investment (FDI) took shape, with major western companies building factories overseas to serve national and regional market.
Invitation to a Deloitte Academy webinar this week: AI and the Future of Employment – Assessing the Impact on Jobs. This Wednesday, 21 February, Professor Carl-Benedikt Frey, Associate Professor of AL & Work at the Oxford Internet Institute, will join me to share his thinking on the impact of Gen AI on the nature and future of work. This session will take place from 09.00–10.30 GMT. To register, for what I think will be a fascinating session, please visit: https://deloitte.zoom.us/webinar/register/7317071434521/WN_aO47Lj7ZSmutCzrwpuFhGQ#/registration
A recurring theme in the Monday Briefing over the last year has been the unexpected resilience of western economies, including the UK. Employment has held up surprisingly well, housing markets have softened, not collapsed, and there is little obvious distress in financial markets.
2023 was a good year for equities with most major markets posting strong returns.
Many of the fears that caused equities to plummet in 2022 unwound in 2023. It wasn’t a great year for global growth but fears of recession eased, inflation fell and by the end of the year, the talk was of interest rate cuts, not increases.
Recent missile attacks on ships travelling through the Red Sea have put supply chains back in the headlines. It is the latest in a line of recent trade disruptions that started with the dislocation of supply chains during the COVID-19 pandemic. These problems were exacerbated in 2021 when the Suez Canal was blocked for six days by a container ship, the Ever Given, which ran aground. In February 2022 Russia’s invasion of Ukraine caused severe disruption to shipping in the Black Sea, and Ukrainian grain exports, causing grain prices to soar.
Join me this Wednesday, 10 January, at 1300 GMT for our year-ahead webinar in which I look at the outlook for the UK and global economies in 2024. To register, please visit:
To mark the start of the holiday season and the twelve days of Christmas, we present 12 of our best and ‘pun-niest’ "And finally" news stories from the Monday Briefing in 2023. The Monday Briefing is taking a break until Monday, 8 January. In the meantime, the Deloitte Economics team wishes you a very merry Christmas and a happy New Year.
In his Autumn Statement last week the UK chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, managed the seemingly impossible, cutting taxes and reducing public borrowing.
Join me this coming Thursday, 23 November, from 08:30-09:45 GMT, for a webinar discussion on the intellectual legacy of the great Scottish economist, Adam Smith, widely seen as the founding father of modern economics. 2023 is the 300th anniversary of Smith’s birth, and to mark the occasion I will be joined by the Rt Hon Liam Fox MP, Dr. Linda Yueh, the Oxford University economist and author of “The Great Economists” and Professor Charles Nolan, from Smith’s alma mater Glasgow University, to explore how Smith’s ideas can illuminate our thinking on economics and business today. To register for this webinar please visit:
Next Wednesday the UK chancellor of the exchequer, Jeremy Hunt, will present his Autumn Statement, which covers taxation, public expenditure and public debt. In some ways things have improved since Mr Hunt’s budget statement in March. Growth has outperformed the Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) March GDP forecasts, government revenues have come in well ahead of expectations and public debt is on a lower than planned trajectory.