Global economics in The Monday Briefing

Running out of workers

Workforce

The global recovery since the financial crisis has not been vigorous. But it has been running for 11 years and it has absorbed a lot of workers. Globally a record 3.3 billion people are in work, 14% more than ten years ago.

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Posted on 03/12/2018

UK growth with and without a Brexit deal

Hologram

Depending on how Brexit goes 2019 could see UK growth accelerate or almost grind to a halt. So, say two forecasting groups which have modelled the economic effects of the UK’s exit from the EU.

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Posted on 26/11/2018

Learning to live with slower Chinese growth

Deloitte-uk-leaves-growing-on-tree

In time, breakneck growth in the early stages of industrialisation gives way to slower growth. All industrialised nations experience this change as a manufacturing boom fuelled by cheap labour runs its course.

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Posted on 19/11/2018

Recessions always start out as downturns

Deloitte-uk-global-economy-recession

Slowing growth in Europe and emerging markets and October’s equity sell off have got economists pondering when the next recession might strike.

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Posted on 12/11/2018

Downs and ups in equity investing

Funds

It ended on a high note last week, but overall October was a rotten month for equities. The world equity market has just had its worst month since 2012, with the benchmark MSCI world index down 7% in October. This fall has more than reversed earlier gains, leaving the global index down 3% so far this year.

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Posted on 05/11/2018

Global Economy in Charts

Download the charts in pdf format here
Download the charts in powerpoint via SlideShare here

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Posted on 29/10/2018

Is it time to control capital flows?

Watering-money

Free market capitalism has faced intense criticism in recent years. Even that most basic tenet of the post-‘70s era, the free movement of capital and floating exchange rates, has its critics. Some on the left believe that a government set on fundamentally reforming capitalism might need to bring in controls to prevent capital leaving the country and a sharp currency devaluation.

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Posted on 16/10/2018

Brexit worries dominate latest CFO Survey

Road

The third quarter Deloitte survey of UK Chief Financial Officers released today shows concerns about Brexit weighing heavily on business sentiment.

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Posted on 08/10/2018

Oil at $80

AM8MX4_lo

In May we wrote that geopolitical factors posed an upside risk to oil prices. Those risks have materialised. Last week the oil price reached $82 a barrel, up 40% over the last 12 months and the highest level in almost four years. Some analysts are warning of a spike above $100.

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Posted on 01/10/2018

The squeeze on Middle America

B72JG3_lo

Last week the team came across some remarkable data. The Oxford economist Max Roser estimates that in 1820 more than 90% of the world’s population lived in extreme, absolute poverty, defined as living on less than $2 per day in today’s money. By 1981 this had fallen to 44% of the world’s population. Today it stands at less than 10% of the world’s population.

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Posted on 24/09/2018