Global economics in The Monday Briefing

Global warnings


The global economy has been slowing for some time. The question is whether we are heading for a soft landing or something worse.

Financial markets last week raised the odds on ‘something worse’. Investors sold riskier assets, including equities, for safe havens such as gold and government bonds. Markets were reacting to alarm signals from two of the world’s most important economic indicators.

First, the yield curve, a gauge of future growth prospects, inverted last week in the US and in the UK. The yield curve measures the gap between the interest rate, or yield, on ten-year government bonds and shorter-maturity debt. Central banks largely set short-term interest rates while long-term yields are driven by market expectations for growth and inflation. When ten-year rates fall below three-month rates, as they have done in the US and the UK, the curve inverts signalling that short rates are too high and growth prospects are weakening. The fact that each of the last seven US recessions were preceded by an inverted curve explains why the equity market took fright last week to the inversion of the yield curve.

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Posted on 19/08/2019

Holiday Quiz

Holiday Quiz

Our summer quiz offers a test of your knowledge of holiday-related trivia through an economics lens. The answers along with a brief explanation are at the end of this note.

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Posted on 12/08/2019

Where is the cheapest housing?


House prices in the developed and developing world have risen rapidly since the financial crisis.

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Posted on 05/08/2019

Summer reading list


A personal view from Ian Stewart, Deloitte's Chief Economist in the UK. To subscribe and/or view previous editions just google 'Deloitte Monday Briefing'.

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Posted on 29/07/2019

Assessing the outlook for global growth


Economists went into 2019 forecasting a slowdown in global growth. That slowdown has come faster than expected. Alarmed by the speed of the downturn, the US Federal Reserve and European Central Bank have switched from tightening monetary policy to easing.

The combination of slower growth and easier policy has elicited very different responses from business and financial markets.

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Posted on 15/07/2019

Equities rally on prospect of cheaper money


At the beginning of this year equity markets were reeling from a sell-off driven by fears over global growth and rising US interest rates.

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Posted on 01/07/2019

Are we doing better than we think?


It is commonplace to say that the pace of technological change is speeding up. From Twitter to online shopping our everyday lives are, apparently, being transformed.

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Posted on 24/06/2019

Central banks to the rescue – again?


This morning we are launching our second quarter “Global Economy in Charts” report, available here -

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Posted on 17/06/2019

Global Economy in Charts - Q2 2019

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Posted on 14/06/2019

China’s Belt and Road Initiative


China’s growth rate has slowed in recent years. Its sustainable growth rate has almost halved, to around 6.0% in a decade or so.

By Western standards this is an unattainably rapid growth rate. It would enable China’s economy to double in size every 12 years. China is still a fast-growing country, and one that exercises growing authority on the world stage. From technology to overseas investment and geopolitical influence China increasingly matters.

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Posted on 10/06/2019