Deficits, debt in The Monday Briefing
Christmas Quiz
Our Christmas quiz offers an eclectic test of knowledge of economics and business. The answers and a brief explanation of the factors at work are at the end of this note.
1. Four of the following were added to the basket of goods used to calculate consumer price inflation in the UK this year, while two were removed from the basket. Which were added?
a) Baking trays
b) Smart speakers
c) Three-piece suits
d) Dog treats
e) Envelopes
f) Electric toothbrushes
What’s the purpose of a company?
Expectations of business change over time. The tax and regulatory environment shift with the political cycle. Society’s expectations change too, and in recent years they have risen.
The size of the UK state
While they disagree on many things, the UK’s Labour and Conservative parties seem to favour an expansion in the state – though to very differing degrees.
A China-US trade deal won’t end protectionism
Last week US equities hit new highs on hopes that China and the US would reach an agreement in their 18-month trade dispute. Financial markets think a deal would reduce uncertainty, boosting investment and growth.
A bumpy road for the auto industry
The car industry is a bellwether of the global economy. When global trade and growth boom so, too, do car sales. With growth slowing and globalisation under pressure, the auto industry is suffering. Car production and sales are falling across most of the rich world and in China and India. The downturn in the sector is the most pronounced since the global financial crisis.
Hard landing risks rising
Last week data showed that the number of people in employment in the UK has fallen by 56,000. Long the standout success in Britain’s recovery the jobs market is feeling the chill winds of weaker growth. Brexit has played a role, but weakening UK activity is small part of a wider, global story.
Weaponising global networks
Globalisation has been one of the defining features of the modern era. It has been marked by the movement of goods, services, ideas, capital and people through a plethora of cross-border networks.
The fiscal taps are opening
This morning we are launching our third quarter “Global economy in charts” report, available here – https://blogs.deloitte.co.uk/mondaybriefing/2019/09
/global-economy-in-charts-q3-2019.html
Created by my colleague Debo, the report examines the big global macro trends and challenges. Charts can be cut and pasted into your own presentations and reports. Do drop Debo a line at dde@deloitte.co.uk with ideas and comments.
Financial markets and the fight against climate change
On Friday, millions of people around the world joined climate change protests. Earlier in the week, Bill Gates, the Microsoft co-founder and philanthropist, warned climate change campaigners that divesting, or refusing to hold, fossil fuel stocks, such as oil companies, was a waste of time. “Divestment, to date, probably has reduced about zero tonnes of emissions. It’s not like you’ve capital-starved [the] people making steel and gasoline.”
What happened over the summer
The weather may have been good but the global economy has had a lacklustre summer. Activity has been disappointing and forecasts for GDP growth next year are drifting down.