Corporate activity in The Monday Briefing
Climate: the next great challenge
The COVID-19 crisis has collapsed global economic activity, and with it, greenhouse gas emissions. The pandemic has brought cleaner air and skies across the world’s cities, but it also offers a glimpse of the scale of changes needed to mitigate the worst impacts of climate change.
Approaching the Brexit endgame
COVID-19 has monopolised the business headlines for the last three months. But now, with the negotiations stepping up a gear and the transition set to end by December, Brexit is moving back into the limelight.
Is it time for negative interest rates?
Data released on Friday showed that the UK economy contracted by more than 26% in March and April as the lockdown collapsed activity. The governor of the Bank of England (BoE), Andrew Bailey, responded by saying that the Bank stood “ready to take action” to help the economy as it emerges from the lockdown. This week we consider whether the time has come for the Bank to deploy the big gun in its arsenal, negative interest rates.
Growth: Stirring not bouncing
As the lockdown eases the global economy is starting to come back to life. Last week’s better than expected US jobs numbers, and a surge in private sector activity in China, reinforced the view in equity markets that the worst is past. On Friday the US S&P500 equity index closed up almost 40% on its March lows.
Jobs after COVID-19
The impact of the lockdown on the UK job market has been dramatic. Last month about a third of the UK’s 33m workforce were being supported by the government, through the furlough scheme, self-employment income support or Universal Credit. A further third were working from home and a final third were at work.
The outlook for UK growth
Last week’s UK GDP data underscored the scale of the economic damage wrought by the COVID-19 lockdown. The economy contracted by 2% in the first quarter of 2020, the sharpest quarterly contraction since the 2008 financial crisis.
Emerging from the lockdown
Many European countries have started easing the lockdowns they imposed in March to contain the spread of COVID-19. Last night UK prime minister Boris Johnson laid out what he described as a “conditional plan” for the gradual easing of the UK’s lockdown.
Deloitte CFO survey: Crash, slow recovery, lasting change
Today’s briefing summarises the findings of the latest Deloitte survey of Chief Financial Officers which was released overnight. The full report is available at: https://www2.deloitte.com/uk/en/pages/finance/articles/deloitte-cfo-survey.html
Growth beyond the downturn
The world faces a major contraction in economic activity. The scale of the likely decline, and the timing and magnitude of any upturn, are hotly debated. But of even greater importance are the long-term effects of the crisis.
Equities rally into the downturn
The latest release of our chart book “The COVID-19 crisis: Economic impact and policy responses”, is available here: https://blogs.deloitte.co.uk/mondaybriefing/2020
/04/covid-19-crisis-economic-impact-and-policy-responses-16-apr-2020.html. The report aims to provide a graphical overview of the key economic developments of the COVID-19 crisis. Do feel free to use any of the charts in your own presentations.