Consumer, pay, jobs in The Monday Briefing

Global Economy in Charts

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Posted on 29/10/2018

Five features of Britain’s jobs market

Employment

The UK is running out of workers. At 4.0% the unemployment rate is at the lowest level since the early 1970s. This is below the rate in historically low-unemployment countries including Sweden, Denmark and Canada. A record 832,000 jobs are unfilled in the UK (two of them in the economics team). The attrition rate, the rate at which people change jobs, has shot up to its highest level since records began in 2001.

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Posted on 29/10/2018

The squeeze on Middle America

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Last week the team came across some remarkable data. The Oxford economist Max Roser estimates that in 1820 more than 90% of the world’s population lived in extreme, absolute poverty, defined as living on less than $2 per day in today’s money. By 1981 this had fallen to 44% of the world’s population. Today it stands at less than 10% of the world’s population.

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Posted on 24/09/2018

Why we shouldn’t tax robots

Drone

Economists of all stripes would agree that investment and the application of technology drive economic activity. For decades governments around the world have made strenuous efforts to encourage investment and new technologies. Last year this orthodoxy came under fire from an unexpected source.

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Posted on 17/09/2018

Consumer debt, how worried should we be?

Credit

It would be hard to imagine life without mortgage and consumer credit.

Mortgages have extended home-ownership beyond the ranks of those on high incomes or with large amounts of capital. Credit has helped bring other major purchases, such as a new car or a kitchen, within the reach of most households. For the wider economy there are benefits too, since access to credit helps keep households going when incomes are under pressure.

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Posted on 10/09/2018

What happened over the summer?

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The summer months tend to be pretty thin for media coverage of economics and finance. Like the rest of us, journalists take their holidays in July and August. Yet economics is no respecter of holidays and events and data have continued to pile up.

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Posted on 03/09/2018

In pursuit of abundant, well paid work

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Britain’s recent record on growing productivity and wages has been lacklustre. In the UK GDP per hour worked, the main measure of productivity, has risen by just 2.2% since 2010, less than a third the rate seen in Germany.

 

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Posted on 23/07/2018

UK update

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UK activity has softened since the vote to leave the EU.  The UK slowdown has been pronounced, though less severe than widely predicted on the eve of the referendum, and has left the UK slowing into a global recovery.

 

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Posted on 18/06/2018

Rising wealth, sluggish wages

The City_London
In the last decade Britain and the US have experienced an unusual combination of soaring asset prices and sluggish wage growth.

Between 2006 and 2016, the total value of assets held by UK households rose by 59% while average incomes increased by just 24%.

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Posted on 21/05/2018

Thoughts on the global economy

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Last month Deloitte’s economists from across the world met in London to assess the outlook for the global economy. It was a fascinating and wide-ranging discussion. Rather than trying to summarise individual views, here are some of the areas where the discussions affected my own thinking.

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Posted on 01/05/2018