The Monday Briefing
A succinct and eclectic weekly take on economics and finance from Ian Stewart, Deloitte's Chief Economist in the UK
Is the economic emergency beginning or ending?
Join our next fortnightly COVID-19 webinar on Thursday, 3 December, at 13:00 GMT. We will discuss the impact of COVID-19 on the future of the city and what this means for the high street. Register here: https://event.webcasts.com/starthere.jsp?ei=1365454&tp_key=8f4d835e66&sti=mmb
Last week the UK chancellor, Rishi Sunak, warned that the UK’s “economic emergency has only just begun”. This struck me as overly pessimistic. While it’s not hard to think of things that could go wrong, some things are going right. Here are three of them, drawing on last week’s spending review and the accompanying report from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR).
First, a return to growth is in sight. The OBR forecasts that the economy will expand by a hefty 5.5% in 2021 and 6.6% in 2022. Agreed, it will take almost two years for the economy to return to pre-crisis levels of GDP. But this represents a faster recovery than after the global financial crisis, when it took five years to regain lost ground. There are two obvious risks. A no-deal Brexit would, the OBR estimate, knock 2.0% off growth next year; delays to, or failures in, vaccines could hit growth much harder. But, equally, a successful and swift deployment of vaccines could turbocharge the recovery.
The pandemic and climate change
At the start of this year our plan was that today’s briefing would cover the outcome of the UN Climate Change Conference, COP26, which was due to end last week. Hosted by the UK in Glasgow, it was set to be a landmark in international efforts to reduce carbon emissions. Like much else it has succumbed to the pandemic, and will now take place next November. COVID-19 has forced the conference’s postponement but it has also generated new momentum on climate change. Six recent announcements testify to the gathering pace of change.
The UK’s shrinking migrant workforce
Join our next fortnightly COVID-19 webinar on Thursday, 19 November, at 13:00 GMT. We will examine how the pandemic has affected government, corporate and public focus on climate change. Register here: https://event.webcasts.com/starthere.jsp?ei=1365454&tp_key=8f4d835e66&sti=mmb
Deloitte Monday Briefing: US elections, UK lockdown
Faced with choosing to write about the US elections or the lockdown in England in this week’s briefing we are doing the obvious thing and covering both.
The age of government activism
Join our next fortnightly COVID-19 webinar, focussing on building resilience, on Thursday, 5 November, at 13:00 GMT: https://event.webcasts.com/starthere.jsp?ei=1365454&tp_key=8f4d835e66&sti=mmb
Governments around the world have responded to the pandemic by borrowing, and spending, on a vast scale, equivalent to 12% of world GDP. Twelve years ago, in the financial crisis, monetary policy did the heavy lifting in supporting growth. Now, with interest rates near zero, the burden has fallen on fiscal policy.
The long COVID recovery
Join our next fortnightly COVID-19 webinar on Thursday, 22 October, at 13:00 BST where we will cover public health and economic developments in China, Germany and the UK. Register for this and our upcoming webinars: https://event.webcasts.com/starthere.jsp?ei=1365454&tp_key=8f4d835e66
When cash becomes digital
Join our next fortnightly COVID-19 webinar on Thursday, 22 October at 13:00, BST where we will cover public health and economic developments in China, Germany and the UK. Register for this and our upcoming webinars: https://event.webcasts.com/starthere.jsp?ei=1365454&tp_key=8f4d835e66
Home working and the future of cities
Join our next fortnightly COVID-19 webinar on Thursday, 8 October, at 13:00 BST with our regular speakers Ian Stewart and Karen Taylor assessing the economy and public health. We will also be joined by Raoul Ruparel, a former 10 Downing Street special adviser, discussing the interplay between Brexit and COVID-19 and its impact on business planning. Register for this and our upcoming webinars: https://event.webcasts.com/starthere.jsp?ei=1365454&tp_key=8f4d835e66
View on-demand content: https://www2.deloitte.com/uk/en/pages/about-deloitte-uk/articles/covid-19-webinars.html
From job retention to job support
The COVID-19 Economics Monitor provides a succinct, easy-to-navigate guide to the global health, economic and financial impacts of the pandemic: https://www2.deloitte.com/uk/en/pages/
finance/articles/covid-19-economics-monitor.html
Governments across Europe face a hard balance between public health and economic activity as they combat a resurgence in COVID-19 cases.
US election - polls, prospects, risks
Join our next COVID-19 webinar this Thursday 24 September, 13:00 BST with our regular speakers Ian Stewart and Karen Taylor assessing where we stand on the economy and public health. We will also be joined by Rick Lester, COO, Risk Advisory, and Paul Lee, global head of TMT research, discussing the return to work and how it’s been assisted by technology. To register for this 30-minute webinar please visit: https://ukinfo.deloitte.com/
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Analysing the latest health data
A personal view from Ian Stewart, Deloitte's Chief Economist in the UK. To subscribe and/or view previous editions just google 'Deloitte Monday Briefing'.