The Monday Briefing
A succinct and eclectic weekly take on economics and finance from Ian Stewart, Deloitte's Chief Economist in the UK
Lessons from past crises
Today we are launching our “The COVID-19 crisis: Economic impact and policy responses” chart book, which is available here: https://blogs.deloitte.co.uk/mondaybriefing/2020/03/the-covid-19-crisis-economic-impact-and-policy-responses.html. The report will be updated weekly and aims to provide a graphical overview of the key economic developments of the COVID-19 crisis. Do feel free to use any of the charts in your own presentations.
Join our “Responding to COVID-19” webinar every Thursday at 13:00 GMT. Each week a panel of Deloitte experts are assessing the latest health, business and economic developments and discussing how organisations can navigate the emerging challenges. To register for this Thursday’s webinar, on 2 April, please visit:
https://event.on24.com/wcc/r/2246547/228A8CA86194F697F8A462DC575F6DC1
Fighting the downturn
Join our “Responding to Covid-19” webinar every Thursday at 13:00 GMT. Each week a panel of Deloitte experts will assess the latest health, business and economic developments and discuss how organisations can navigate the emerging challenges. To register for this Thursday’s webinar, on 26 March, please visit: https://event.on24.com/wcc/r/2236261/205AB242C502B596F079BFB95578079B
Time to deploy the big bazooka
Join our new “Responding to Covid-19” webinar every Thursday at 13:00 GMT. Each week a panel of Deloitte experts will assess the latest health, business and economic developments and discuss how organisations can navigate the emerging challenges. To register for this Thursday’s webinar, on 19 March, please visit:
How to keep the economy going
The spread of Covid-19 represents a serious threat to the global economy. The shock to demand, output and supply chains is likely to be significant. The stampede by investors out of equities and into the ‘safe haven’ of government bonds and gold in the last fortnight testifies to the growing nervousness. Policymakers want to ensure that the inevitable hit to economic activity is shallow and short-lived. To do so they will need to prevent a hit to growth turning into a liquidity crisis, in which businesses, banks and households run out of cash.
The economics of coronavirus
Last week equity markets concluded that the spread of coronavirus has major implications for economic growth and corporate profits. Last week’s sell-off in US equities was the sharpest correction since the Great Depression in 1933. It is a measure of the concern of markets that the immediate reaction of US equities was greater than when news of the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers broke in 2008.
Housing drivers
Spring seems to have come early for the UK housing market. The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors’ survey reported a sharp rise in new buyer enquiries and house price expectations in January. New instructions for house sales are rising at the fastest pace in over six years. House price inflation has edged up in the last couple of months.
Slower growth, plentiful jobs
One of the surprises of recent years has been the way in which, despite disappointing growth, unemployment has continued to fall. Britain’s growth rate has halved since the peak in 2014 yet the unemployment rate has maintained its downward trajectory and is now at the lowest level in over 45 years.
Assessing the impact of coronavirus
Coronavirus has quickly emerged as a risk to Chinese and global economic activity. The human effects matter most but the disease is having a marked impact on some areas of economic activity in China. The ultimate economic effect, is, like the path of the virus, unknowable. This week’s briefing reviews the evidence and looks at the lessons from previous infections.
Britain 2000 vs 2020
As we enter the third decade of the 21st century, this week’s briefing looks at how the UK economy and society have changed since the turn of the millennium.
Year-ahead webinar Q&A
We recently hosted our “Year-ahead webinar” to discuss the outlook for global growth with you. With limited time for Q&A, I was able to respond to only a few of the questions some of you posed. So, in this week’s briefing, the economics team and I respond to six additional questions, covering the themes that came up most frequently in your queries.