The Monday Briefing
A succinct and eclectic weekly take on economics and finance from Ian Stewart, Deloitte's Chief Economist in the UK
Housing drivers
Spring seems to have come early for the UK housing market. The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors’ survey reported a sharp rise in new buyer enquiries and house price expectations in January. New instructions for house sales are rising at the fastest pace in over six years. House price inflation has edged up in the last couple of months.
The recent stirrings follow a period of sluggish housing activity. The rebound in house prices and activity which started in 2013 hit the buffers in 2016, the year of the EU referendum. The Halifax measure of house price inflation dropped from a year-on-year peak of 8.8% in the spring of 2016 to a low of 0.9% last October. House prices in London have grown far slower than the national average in the last three years, a development which has made housing in the capital marginally more affordable relative to incomes.
Yet over a longer period the picture is of house prices far outstripping general inflation and earnings. Since 2000 the Halifax measure of UK house prices almost tripled while earnings have rose by less than 80%.
Slower growth, plentiful jobs
One of the surprises of recent years has been the way in which, despite disappointing growth, unemployment has continued to fall. Britain’s growth rate has halved since the peak in 2014 yet the unemployment rate has maintained its downward trajectory and is now at the lowest level in over 45 years.
Assessing the impact of coronavirus
Coronavirus has quickly emerged as a risk to Chinese and global economic activity. The human effects matter most but the disease is having a marked impact on some areas of economic activity in China. The ultimate economic effect, is, like the path of the virus, unknowable. This week’s briefing reviews the evidence and looks at the lessons from previous infections.
Britain 2000 vs 2020
As we enter the third decade of the 21st century, this week’s briefing looks at how the UK economy and society have changed since the turn of the millennium.
Year-ahead webinar Q&A
We recently hosted our “Year-ahead webinar” to discuss the outlook for global growth with you. With limited time for Q&A, I was able to respond to only a few of the questions some of you posed. So, in this week’s briefing, the economics team and I respond to six additional questions, covering the themes that came up most frequently in your queries.
Who made money in 2019?
2019 was a good year for financial markets and investors, with global equities up 27% over the course of the year. All major asset classes ended 2019 up on the year and risk assets were clear outperformers.
2020 global economic outlook
This week’s Monday Briefing offers a view on prospects for global growth in 2020. We also review the findings of the latest survey of UK Chief Financial Officers which show a post-election surge in business confidence. A copy of the CFO Survey can be found at: https://www2.deloitte.com/uk/en/pages/finance/articles/deloitte-cfo-survey.html
What happened over the Christmas holidays
This week’s briefing looks at some of the big economic events of the last month or so. As a result we have dropped our usual news section this week. We will release our full year-ahead view for the UK and global economies next Monday, 13 January.
And finally…
Here, to mark the start of the Christmas week, are twelve of our "and finally" news stories from the Monday Briefing in 2019. The Monday Briefing is taking a break until Monday, 6 January. In the meantime, the Deloitte Economics team wish you a merry Christmas and a happy New Year.
Thoughts on the UK general election
Boris Johnson’s 80-seat parliamentary majority has transformed the UK political scene. What does it mean for business and the economy? As always what follows is a personal view.
What to read this Christmas
We are publishing our annual Christmas reading list today. It aims to offer a thought-provoking break from the rigours of Christmas. All are available free and online. You can save these articles on your smartphone's or tablet's reading list. To print any use the print icons, where available, on the webpages to ensure the whole article comes out.