The Monday Briefing
A succinct and eclectic weekly take on economics and finance from Ian Stewart, Deloitte's Chief Economist in the UK
CFO optimism reaches record levels
Our latest UK Chief Financial Officers Survey, released overnight, shines light on the plans of Britain’s largest corporates as the economy reopens. The full report is available at: https://www2.deloitte.com/uk/en/pages/finance/articles/deloitte-cfo-survey.html
This is a remarkably upbeat survey, the most consistently positive of any since we started to survey CFOs in 2007.
Optimism among Chief Financial Officers (CFOs) has risen to the highest level in the 13-year history of the CFO Survey, far surpassing previous peaks seen after the global financial crisis and in the wake of the December 2019 general election.
Vaccinations and future waves – are we out of the woods?
In the UK things are looking up on the health and economic fronts. COVID-19 cases, hospitalisations and deaths have fallen sharply from their January peaks. For two consecutive weeks, the number of deaths from all causes in England and Wales has been below the five-year average. On 28 March zero COVID-19 deaths were reported in London.
How fiscal policy can save the planet
Join Deloitte CEO Richard Houston and me as we examine economic and business prospects beyond the pandemic in our Spring webinar tomorrow, Tuesday, 30 March, 14:30–15:30 BST. To register please visit:
https://event.webcasts.com/starthere.jsp?ei=1440317&tp_key=533939db50
The pandemic baby bust
The COVID-19 pandemic appears to have caused a baby bust. Nine months on from the start of the pandemic there has been a sharp decline in births.
Spring Budget 2021
Rarely has there been more uncertainty regarding the course of the public finances over the next five years. In this note we aim to answer some of the big questions for the economy in light of the 2021 budget.
Public spending, debt and inflation: what’s next?
Join me for our Spring economic update webinar on Tuesday, 30 March, 14:30–15:30 GMT. To register please visit: https://event.webcasts.com/starthere.jsp?ei=1440317&tp_key=533939db50
Universal Basic Income - Has its time come?
Join our next fortnightly COVID-19 webinar on Thursday, 11 March, at 13:00 GMT where Ian Stewart and Karen Taylor will give the latest public health and economic updates. Our guest will be Sir Howard Bernstein, strategic advisor, Deloitte and former chief executive of Manchester City Council and former head of Paid Service for the Greater Manchester Combined Authority. Sir Howard will offer his perspective on the challenges and opportunities of the UK government's 'levelling up' agenda and how it might impact economic outlook for the regions and the UK.
Register here: https://event.webcasts.com/starthere.jsp?ei=1365454&tp_key=8f4d835e66&sti=mmb
Levelling up, from slogan to action
When he became prime minister in July 2019 Boris Johnson brought with him a new priority in the form of ‘levelling up’. It’s an old idea and an enduring political concern, one that, getting on for a hundred years, has gone by the name of regional policy. A growing focus on inequalities of income, health and opportunity across Britain has brought regional policy back to the fore. The Conservative’s 2019 general election success in Labour ‘red wall’ seats in the North, the Midlands, Yorkshire and Wales, has lent political weight to the cause. And in the last year the pandemic has added a new dimension to regional inequalities. Levelling up’s time has arrived.
In search of Goldilocks inflation
Join our next fortnightly COVID-19 webinar this Thursday, 25 February, at 13:00 GMT when we will examine the latest public health and economic data and look at how the pandemic is likely to accelerate the adoption of technology.
Please register here: https://event.webcasts.com/starthere.jsp?ei=1365454&tp_key=8f4d835e66&sti=mmb.
UK GDP in 2020 – bad, but not quite as bad as it looks
It says something about the world we’re in that a 9.9% contraction in the UK economy in 2020 is seen as good news by economists. But with the economy expanding by a healthy 1.0% in the fourth quarter of last year, despite November’s lockdown, GDP ended up shrinking slightly less in 2020 than had been feared.
A shifting consensus on economic policy
Join our next fortnightly COVID-19 webinar on Thursday, 11 February, at 13:00 GMT where Ian Stewart and Karen Taylor will give the latest public health and economic updates. We will be joined by Sharon Thorne, chair of the Deloitte Global Board of Directors, who will offer her perspective on how boards and leadership of organisations have been contending with the pandemic.
Register here: https://event.webcasts.com/starthere.jsp?ei=1365454&tp_key=8f4d835e66&sti=mmb