The Monday Briefing
A succinct and eclectic weekly take on economics and finance from Ian Stewart, Deloitte's Chief Economist in the UK
US election - polls, prospects, risks
Join our next COVID-19 webinar this Thursday 24 September, 13:00 BST with our regular speakers Ian Stewart and Karen Taylor assessing where we stand on the economy and public health. We will also be joined by Rick Lester, COO, Risk Advisory, and Paul Lee, global head of TMT research, discussing the return to work and how it’s been assisted by technology. To register for this 30-minute webinar please visit: https://ukinfo.deloitte.com/iLRR02GtA1w00Q005Qm2I0U
The latest opinion polls show Democratic candidate Joe Biden is the clear favourite to win the US presidential election on 3 November. An average of national opinion polls from website FiveThirtyEight gives Mr Biden a 6.6 percentage-point lead over Donald Trump, down from 7–10 points over the summer. Pollsters estimate that the Democratic presidential candidate needs a margin of 3–4 points in the popular vote to win the electoral college and take the presidency.
Forecasting models, based on past and current poll data, predict a clear Biden victory. As of last Friday The Economist’s election model gave Mr Biden an 86% chance of victory. Statistician Nate Silver gave Mr Biden a 76% probability of winning.
Analysing the latest health data
A personal view from Ian Stewart, Deloitte's Chief Economist in the UK. To subscribe and/or view previous editions just google 'Deloitte Monday Briefing'.
What happened over the summer
Following a break over the summer our COVID-19 webinar returns this Thursday, 10 September, at 13:00 BST. Our regular presenters, Ian Stewart and Karen Taylor, will assess where we stand on the economy and public health as we head into the final quarter of the year. To register for this 30-minute webinar please visit: https://ukinfo.deloitte.com/kR0Ew0250MA02GQmQr01U0I
Shocks, recessions and recoveries – lessons from history
In their response to the pandemic, Western governments have learned and applied many of the lessons of past crises.
Distancing, not deglobalisation
Future historians are likely to conclude that a phase of breakneck globalisation that started in the 1970s drew to an end in the wake of the financial crisis 12 years ago. They will surely see the 2020 pandemic as having dealt a further, heavy blow to globalisation.
Resilience in a downturn
The pandemic has been vastly disruptive, arguably more so than any single event since the last war. It has also prompted powerful responses from government and the private sector. This week’s briefing considers six examples of adaptability and resilience.
Assets returns so far this year
One of the more remarkable features of the COVID-19 crisis has been the yawning gap between collapsing economic activity and rising equity markets. Investors had a torrid start to the year with the pandemic driving down risk assets and global equities by almost a third between by 23 March. But since then equities have staged a remarkable comeback and the global market is now down by just 1% so far this year.
Productivity beyond the pandemic
Prior to the COVID-19 global pandemic, one of the biggest challenges facing the UK economy was undoubtedly sluggish productivity growth.
Summer reading list
This summer holiday season will be like no other. Nonetheless, as we have done for the last 11 years, the end of July marks the launch of our summer reading list. The six articles aim to offer a stimulating read during quiet times on holiday, at home or maybe in the garden. All are available free and online.
‘V-shaped’ recovery hopes fade
The big data event for economists in the UK last week was the release of May GDP numbers. After a record 27% contraction in March and April, the easing of the lockdown from May was expected to generate a strong bounce in activity. The outcome, a disappointing 1.8% increase in GDP, has dented hopes of a swift, ‘V-shaped’ recovery.
Debt and taxes
The government response to COVID-19 has involved vast, debt-financed increases in public expenditure. The spending has been on a far greater scale than during the financial crisis. With interest rates close to zero fiscal policy is firmly in the driving seat.