The Monday Briefing

CFOs turn more positive on the UK

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Deloitte’s second quarter CFO Survey, conducted in the second half of June, shows a surprising degree of resilience among the largest corporates in the UK. Despite the conflict between Israel and Iran, volatility in oil prices and the threat of US tariffs, CFO sentiment and risk appetite have edged up slightly. The survey is available at:

https://www.deloitte.com/uk/en/services/consulting-financial/perspectives/deloitte-cfo-survey.html

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Posted on 14/07/2025

Remaking supply chains

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Global supply chains have come under strain in recent years from geopolitical tensions and a series of shocks, including the pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

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Posted on 07/07/2025

The growth of the state

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The last 125 years have seen a significant expansion in the size and role of government. Growth has not been linear, with wars, crises and politics, creating swings in the size of the state. The post-war Labour government created the welfare state, permanently expanding the role of government. Under prime minister Margaret Thatcher, privatisation and the winding down of cold war defence spending shrank the state.

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Posted on 30/06/2025

Graduate prospects

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We start with three facts about UK higher education. UK graduates earn far more than non-graduates over their lifetime, are more likely to be in work and are far more likely to work later in life.

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Posted on 23/06/2025

Oil prices spike on Middle East conflict

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The outbreak of hostilities between Israel and Iran last Friday has lifted the oil price to $75 a barrel, up 19% since the start of this month. By the standards of recent years’ oil prices, which hit a peak of $129 a barrel three years ago, these are still subdued. Still, with both sides talking of escalation, the risks to energy prices lie squarely on the upside.

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Posted on 16/06/2025

UK growth – OK, all things considered

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For all that’s been thrown at it, the UK economy has not done too badly so far this year.

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Posted on 09/06/2025

UK migration nation

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The UK has been a major net ‘importer’ of people since the 1990s, with immigration running well ahead of emigration. The UK’s foreign-born workforce increased by an average of 5% a year between 1998 and early 2020, roughly ten times the annual growth rate in the UK-born workforce.

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Posted on 03/06/2025

The bond vigilantes are back

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Last Thursday the US House of Representatives passed president Trump’s tax-cutting budget bill by a single vote. The bill now goes to the Senate for ratification.

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Posted on 27/05/2025

America’s growing debt mountain

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After a sell-off following the announcement of sweeping US tariffs early last month, equities have rallied on hopes that the US will strike trade deals. The US and UK settled on a framework agreement on trade earlier this month and last week the US and China agreed to cut tariff rates and to open trade negotiations. Press reports suggest that other outline agreements may be in the offing. US equities have risen 20% since 8 April, more than making up losses on the initial tariff announcements.

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Posted on 19/05/2025

Bank of England cuts interest rates despite expected pickup in inflation

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Last week the Bank of England (BoE) cut interest rates from 4.5% to 4.25%, the fourth reduction since last summer when rates stood at 5.25%. The interest rate decision was not unanimous with five of the nine Monetary Policy Committee members voting to cut rates, two voting to keep rates on hold, and two voting for a larger cut to 4.0%.

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Posted on 12/05/2025

The China technology challenge

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In January, Chinese company DeepSeek stunned financial markets with the release of its generative artificial intelligence model R1. It matched the efficacy of market leading US firm OpenAI’s most advanced models but was produced at a fraction of the cost.

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Posted on 06/05/2025