The Monday Briefing
A succinct and eclectic weekly take on economics and finance from Ian Stewart, Deloitte's Chief Economist in the UK
Christmas quiz
Our Christmas Quiz offers an eclectic test of knowledge of economics and business. The answers and a brief explanation of the factors at work are at the end of this note.
1. Much of the modern Christmas was created in the nineteenth century. Match the person to the Christmas innovation.
a) The invention of the Christmas cracker in 1848
b) The first commercial Christmas cards in 1843
c) The Christmas tree’s arrival in the UK in 1800
d) A Christmas Carol, written in 1843
i) Queen Charlotte, the German wife of George III
ii) Sir Henry Cole, prolific Victorian inventor
iii) Tom Smith, a leading confectioner in Victorian England
iv) Charles Dickens
Running out of workers
The global recovery since the financial crisis has not been vigorous. But it has been running for 11 years and it has absorbed a lot of workers. Globally a record 3.3 billion people are in work, 14% more than ten years ago.
UK growth with and without a Brexit deal
Depending on how Brexit goes 2019 could see UK growth accelerate or almost grind to a halt. So, say two forecasting groups which have modelled the economic effects of the UK’s exit from the EU.
Learning to live with slower Chinese growth
In time, breakneck growth in the early stages of industrialisation gives way to slower growth. All industrialised nations experience this change as a manufacturing boom fuelled by cheap labour runs its course.
Recessions always start out as downturns
Slowing growth in Europe and emerging markets and October’s equity sell off have got economists pondering when the next recession might strike.
Downs and ups in equity investing
It ended on a high note last week, but overall October was a rotten month for equities. The world equity market has just had its worst month since 2012, with the benchmark MSCI world index down 7% in October. This fall has more than reversed earlier gains, leaving the global index down 3% so far this year.
Global Economy in Charts
Five features of Britain’s jobs market
The UK is running out of workers. At 4.0% the unemployment rate is at the lowest level since the early 1970s. This is below the rate in historically low-unemployment countries including Sweden, Denmark and Canada. A record 832,000 jobs are unfilled in the UK (two of them in the economics team). The attrition rate, the rate at which people change jobs, has shot up to its highest level since records began in 2001.
Austerity may be dead, but what about government debt?
The financial crisis, recession and a slow recovery played havoc with the UK’s public finances, leaving the government with the largest ever peacetime budget deficit.
Is it time to control capital flows?
Free market capitalism has faced intense criticism in recent years. Even that most basic tenet of the post-‘70s era, the free movement of capital and floating exchange rates, has its critics. Some on the left believe that a government set on fundamentally reforming capitalism might need to bring in controls to prevent capital leaving the country and a sharp currency devaluation.
Brexit worries dominate latest CFO Survey
The third quarter Deloitte survey of UK Chief Financial Officers released today shows concerns about Brexit weighing heavily on business sentiment.