By Marcia Costa, Manager, and Emily May, Manager, Deloitte Centre for Health Solutions

In 2023, our ‘Future of Health in Europe’ report found wide variations in health outcomes both within and between European countries, alongside substantial variations in healthcare funding and the range of healthcare services offered, and identified the actions needed to create more equitable, sustainable and resilient healthcare systems. On 25^th February 2025, the World Health Organisation (WHO) published Keeping health high on the agenda: the European Health Report 2024, a flagship publication providing a comprehensive analysis of achievements against the indicators identified in the measurement framework for the WHO European Programme of Work 2020-25 – ‘United for Better Health’. The report covering 53 member states, also identifies priority areas for action and further improvement.¹ While the report acknowledges that some progress has been made, it concludes that people’s health across the region is largely stagnating or even backsliding on a range of indicators from child and adolescent health to chronic diseases.² In this blog, we explore how our vision of the Future of Health (FoH) could help countries achieve WHO’s policy recommendations.

The current state of health in the European region

The 2024 European health report concludes the first European Programme of Work 2020–2025: an era marked by unprecedented challenges, including a global pandemic, an increasing number of significant geopolitical conflicts and the severe and mounting health impacts of climate change.  It highlights progress in some areas, such as reducing premature mortality from non-communicable diseases (NCDs), reductions in suicide mortality and the incidence of tuberculosis. However, it also exposes wide variations in progress within and between countries. Falling vaccination coverage, growing antimicrobial resistance, persistently high rates of premature deaths from cardiovascular diseases, increasing rates of violence against women and girls and a growing mental health crisis among young people are some of the more pressing issues where collective, transformative action is urgently needed.³

The report identified the need for specific attention to protect the health of children, older people and people on low incomes. The report stresses that health systems have not bounced back since the COVID-19 pandemic and are struggling with workforce shortages and demographic shifts while having to adapt to rapid shifts in the technological landscape.⁴ The report highlights significant disparities in health outcomes between European countries. Notably:

• Premature NCD deaths: one in six people in the region dies prematurely (before 70 years) from cardiovascular diseases, cancer, diabetes, or chronic respiratory diseases. Men are twice as likely as women to die prematurely from these conditions:
  • cardiovascular diseases account for one third of premature deaths from NCDs in the region, a risk nearly 5 times higher in eastern Europe and central Asia than in western Europe
  • cancer is the second leading cause of premature death. While incidence is higher in Western and Northern Europe, mortality rates are higher in Eastern Europe.
• Preventable diseases: suboptimal vaccination rates have led to a resurgence of preventable diseases such as measles (a staggering 30-fold rise in one year). Antimicrobial resistance also continues to pose a critical threat with wide variability between member states and subnational coverage unevenly distributed.
• Neonatal and infant mortality: more than 70,000 infants die unnecessarily before the age of five, with country level neonatal mortality rates varying between 0.7 and 23 deaths per 1000 live births, and under-5 mortality rates varying between 1.5 and 40.4 deaths per 1000 live births.
• Climate-related deaths: the WHO region is the fastest warming of six WHO regions leading to a rise in heat-related deaths (in 2022, over 61,000 heat-related deaths were estimated across 35 member states). There are large disparities also mortality rates due to air pollution (ranging from 7.5 to 159.6 deaths per 100,000 population across member states).
• Concerns over child and adolescent mental health: one in five adolescents grapples with a mental health condition; suicide is the leading cause of death among young people (aged 15-29 years).
• Strained health systems: Health systems face ongoing strain, with many vulnerable citizens experiencing health-related financial hardship undermining overall health gains, with more than 20 per cent of households in some member states facing catastrophic health expenditures.⁵

The report identifies six key areas requiring immediate and collaborative action (see Figure 1). 

Figure 1: Key areas identified in need for urgent action by the WHO to overcome healthcare challenges in the European region

Source: WHO, ‘European health report 2024’, 2025.

The WHO Europe report emphasises the crucial need to build resilient health systems to tackle existing and emerging threats, including strengthening early warning systems. It recommends that in addition to combatting the rise of NCDs, health systems should focus on prevention, creating healthier living environments and addressing social determinants of health. While digitalisation offers powerful tools to improve care, from telemedicine and AI-driven diagnostics to health data integration, health systems also need a strong foundation in primary health to manage the healthcare challenges sustainably and in a fiscally responsible manner. The report calls for renewed health workforce strategies and adaptive health financing policies aligned with the realities of evolving service delivery and affordable access to services for all. WHO/Europe has embarked on a comprehensive consultative process with all 53 member states to chart priorities and actions over the next five years, using the 2024 European Health Report to guide the discussions. 

How Deloitte research on the FoH can help WHO/Europe achieve its ambitions for equitable, resilient and sustainable healthcare systems

Deloitte’s global FoH^TM campaign, first launched in 2017, is based on a strongly held view that, by 2040, patients will be at the centre if the care model, wellness, prevention and early diagnosis will exceed treatment-based reactionary care, and emergent technologies (including AI) and digital transformation, and open secure platforms will enable this shift and sustain the entire health ecosystem. An actuarial model based on healthcare spending patterns in the US calculates that this vision will enable substantial savings.⁶

In 2023, our ‘Future of Health in Europe’ report provided a European perspective on the global FoH campaign. We recognised Europe's diverse healthcare landscape, addressing the unique cultural and economic contexts, as well as challenges such as aging populations, rising innovation costs, and emerging health threats. We identified several macro dynamics and nine future of health drivers that will influence the pace of change (see Figure 2).

Deloitte's envisioned model for the FoH in Europe is rooted in a holistic understanding of well-being that emphasises prevention over cure. By 2040, healthcare is envisaged to be population-based, efficient and more cost-effective based on a shift towards predictive, preventative, participatory, personalised and precise (5P) healthcare; enabled by advances in AI-enabled diagnostics, scientific breakthroughs, and a healthcare system reorientation towards the quintuple aims of health (see Figure 3).⁷

In adapting the US actuarial model to Europe (using trend data from 2010-2019 for 26 countries) we found that shifting to the FoH model could improve health outcomes and realise potential savings of €600 billion by 2040 compared to current trends (see Figure 4).  Because healthcare spending as a percentage of GDP varies widely between countries, from 11.7 per cent in Germany to less than 5.5 per cent in Romania, with a three-fold difference in average health expenditure per capita between high-spending countries in Western and Northern Europe and low-spending Eastern European countries, we calculated that these shifts could produce a well-being dividend that could be used to invest in levelling up access across Europe, supporting initiatives to build more sustainable and resilient models of care.⁸

What should different countries prioritise?

Our report acknowledges that despite their diversity, all European healthcare systems have the potential to realise the FoH model by 2040 or earlier. We grouped countries into categories of healthcare systems: leaders, fast followers, followers and laggards. While this categorisation is not absolute, our analysis identifies key actionable priorities to accelerate progress towards the FoH for all countries (see Figure 5).

Figure 5. What do European countries need to prioritise to get to the FoH?

Conclusion

The 2024 WHO/Europe report is a unique resource that provides a rich source of relevant data and information on the state of healthcare across Europe. It highlights the urgency for European healthcare systems to adapt and evolve. While challenges are all too real and many are proving intractable to address, we consider our FoH vision could provide some insights to help inform the ongoing consultation exercise to identify actions and priorities over the next five years.

The rate of transformation needed will vary, influenced by factors such as healthcare funding; maturity of the digital and data infrastructure; ease of access to healthcare and health literacy rates; and citizen engagement and willingness to change behaviours, and levels of trust in the health system. Nevertheless, we believe that European countries will increasingly unite around a shared ‘good health for all’ vision and work more collaboratively to build equitable, resilient and affordable healthcare systems.

Marcia Costa, Research Manager, Life Sciences Insight Lead

Márcia is the research manager for healthcare in the Centre for Health Solutions, providing support and expertise to develop solutions to overcome today’s healthcare challenges. Working with the team, Márcia develops insights based on rigorous data analysis to improve outcomes for patients and increase health systems efficiencies. Originally from Portugal, Márcia has an MSc in biomedical engineering and biophysics and a PhD in cancer research. Márcia has previously worked in publishing for an oncology journal in London. Márcia is passionate about health equity.

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Emily May, Research Manager, Centre for Health Solutions

Emily is a manager in the Centre for Health Solutions where she applies her background in both scientific research and pharmaceutical analytics to produce supported insights for the Life Sciences and Healthcare practice. Emily leads the research and publication of the life sciences insights, performing thorough analysis to find solutions for the challenges impacting the industry and generating predictions for the future. Prior to joining the centre, Emily worked as an Analytical Scientist conducting physical chemistry analysis on early stage drug compounds and previously lived in Antwerp, Belgium where she researched and developed water-based adhesive films.

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1 https://www.who.int/europe/activities/keeping-health-high-on-the-agenda--the-european-health-report-2024

2 From cradle to cane: WHO’s new European Health Report warns of lifelong health crises across the Region

3 European health report 2024: keeping health high on the agenda

4  Ibid.

5 Ibid.

6 https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/industry/health-care/future-health-care-spending.html

7 Healthcare in Europe | Deloitte Insights

8 Ibid.