2018 global economic outlook

Monday Briefing compass
The global economy enters 2018 with good momentum. Expectations for growth this year are rising in many countries, equities are hitting new highs and business confidence is buoyant.

The worries around Brexit, the US elections, risks in the Chinese economy and populism in Europe that loomed large 12-18 months ago have eased. Our “worry index”, which tracks references to terms such as risk, uncertainty and instability in the major business papers has fallen by 30% from its 2016 peak. Financial measures of risk have declined, so much so that some see markets as overly complacent.

Last week’s surge in the oil price, to a three year high of $70, fits with the idea of gathering global demand. A pickup in global trade has pushed up the benchmark index of sea freight rates by 50% in the space of a year.

This looks like that rare thing: a synchronised global recovery, across developed and emerging countries, that is delivering lower unemployment. In much of the rich world, including the US, Germany, Japan, and the UK, jobless rates are close to, or lower, than at any time in at least 25 years.

The turnaround has been particularly pronounced in two regions which have suffered persistently weak growth in recent years. Japan and the euro area saw unexpectedly strong recoveries in 2017. Both economies should post rates of growth this year at or around the levels seen last year. For the euro area 2017 and 2018 seem likely to be the best two year period for growth in 11 years.  

America’s recovery has unfolded in line with earlier expectations, confounding the fears of Trump sceptics and dashing hopes of an immediate ‘Trump boost’. The upswing was already underway at time of the Presidential election in late 2016, and has speeded up since last spring. Buoyant business and consumer confidence and still-easy credit conditions point to a further acceleration in US growth this year. Tax cuts for consumers and business should bolster the growth. The Federal Reserve will continue to lead the world in tightening monetary policy. Markets are assuming that US interest rates will rose at least a further 75bp this year, taking them to 2.25%.

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Posted on 15/01/2018

CFOs want cost control and growth

Planting seeds for growth
The latest Deloitte survey of UK Chief Financial Officers, released this morning, shows the CFOs enter 2018 more focussed on controlling costs than at any time in the last eight years. CFOs seem to be reacting to slower UK growth and Brexit uncertainties with a renewed focus on costs.

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Posted on 08/01/2018

Six news stories for Christmas

Doughnut
Here is our choice selection of the "and finally" news stories from the Monday Briefing in 2017. Credit goes to my colleagues for tracking down these stories and for forging the right pun or quip. The Monday Briefing is taking a break until Monday 8th January. In the meantime the Deloitte economics team - Ian, Debo, Alex, Rebecca and Tom - wish you a very merry Christmas and a happy New Year.

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Posted on 18/12/2017

What to read this Christmas

Monday Briefing christmas reading
We are launching our Christmas reading list today. Our ‘top six’ is the product of a lot of reading and some debate in the Economics Team. The list aims to offer a thought-provoking and enjoyable break from the rigours of Christmas. All are available free and online. You can save these articles on your smartphone's or tablet's reading list. To print any use the print icons, where available, on the webpages to ensure the whole article comes out.

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Posted on 11/12/2017

Christmas Quiz 2017

Christmas Quiz gift ribbon
Our Christmas Quiz offers an eclectic test of knowledge of economics and business. The answers, and a brief explanation of the factors at work, are at the end of this note.

 

  1. Which of the following countries has the most affordable housing market relative to incomes, according to The Economist’s house price affordability index?

 

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Posted on 05/12/2017

Is low productivity here to stay?

 

Productivity Monday Briefing low measure
It’s official, the UK growth outlook has taken a turn for the worse. By far the biggest news in last week’s budget was the downgrade in the Office of Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) forecast for UK productivity growth over the next four years, from an average of 1.6% to 0.9% a year.

There is no consensus about why UK productivity growth has been so weak in recent years. But with the under-performance running into its sixth year, and other countries struggling with similar problems, the OBR has thrown in the towel and accepted that the days of rapid productivity growth are over.

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Posted on 27/11/2017

Decision time for the EU (and it’s not about Brexit)

 

Monday Briefing direction
What is the biggest question facing the European Union?

 

Brexit is the obvious candidate. The secession of a member state is an almost unimagined contingency. But for all the historic significance of Brexit the future direction of the EU itself is, for my money, a more important question.

 

 

 

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Posted on 20/11/2017

Reports of the death of cash are greatly exaggerated

Monday Briefing receipt
Spending money just keeps getting easier. Internet shopping, electronic bank transfers, contactless and mobile payments are increasingly popular ways of spending. Last year the number of contactless payments tripled in the UK and on-line shopping rose nearly 20%. Digital versions of traditional central bank currencies are in the ascendant in the West.

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Posted on 13/11/2017

Mr Trump’s first 12 months - Political fireworks, steady as she goes on the economy

Monday fireworks
This Wednesday marks the anniversary of Donald Trump’s election victory, one of the most surprising and unexpected in US history. A year on we reflect on what effect the new president has had on the US economy and financial markets.

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Posted on 06/11/2017

Commodities make a comeback

Oil Monday Briefing
Cheap money has driven a surge in asset prices around the world. The pries of equities and bonds are at record highs and in much of the world so, too, are house prices.

One class of assets that has been late to the party, and doesn’t look pricey, is commodities.

This broad category includes everything from agricultural products, such as rice, to base and precious metals and most energy sources.

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Posted on 30/10/2017

Tenth birthday edition

10 years Monday Briefing
The Monday Briefing reached its tenth birthday over the summer. This week’s Briefing offers some thoughts on the lessons we’ve learned and the errors and successes we’ve made along the way.

Perhaps the most obvious lesson is that the economy depends on a stable financial system. In getting this right before the crisis, and emphasising it in the Briefing, I can’t claim great prescience. The devastating effect of the bursting of Japan’s banking and asset bubble in the early 1990s provided me, and others of my generation, with a graphic illustration of the effects of a financial collapse.

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Posted on 24/10/2017