Capital Markets in Financial Services UK
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The introduction of IFRS 9 from 1 January 2018 will have a significant effect on regulatory capital across the banking industry, with four-fifths of EU banks expecting their stock of impairments to rise under the new rules according to a Deloitte survey. The European Banking Authority’s (EBA) estimates for the increase of impairment stock (provisions), compared to the current levels under IAS 39, is 18% on average and up to 30% for some firms. This led to an estimated decrease in Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) and total capital ratios by an average of 59 bps and 45 bps, respectively. As a result, finding a mechanism to smooth any unwanted impacts following the IFRS 9 adoption, by avoiding a capital cliff-effect on day one, has rapidly become a priority for prudential regulators.
The implementation of the mandatory exchange of initial and variation margin for non-cleared OTC derivative trades in the EU commenced on 4 February for financial counterparties with the largest derivatives portfolios. The introduction of these rules – which was part of the G20’s mandate to reduce the systemic risk posed by the OTC derivatives trading – is expected to lead to an increase in the cost of trading for non-cleared trades.
7 March 2017 will mark a year since the commencement of the Senior Managers Regime (SMR) for banks, building societies, credit unions and PRA-designated investment firms. This date is also significant since it will be the go-live date for the following requirements which form part of the SMR:
The demand for IT risk management is rapidly increasing in response to the rise in threats and the unprecedented wave of innovation spreading across the financial services industry. Now is the time for senior financial services risk professionals to begin preparing for the array of changes that are altering the world in which we live.
With the adoption of the IFRS 9 accounting standard into EU law, it is full steam ahead for banks to deploy credit models that estimate Expected Credit Loss (ECL) accounting values. The standard requires firms to account for lifetime ECL on loans that have experienced a “significant increase in credit risk” (SICR), but allows firms to reach their own conclusions as to just how much credit risk ought to be viewed as “significant”.
Biased Expectations: Will biases in IFRS 9 models be material enough to impact accounting values, as well as other applications such as pricing?
As European IFRS reporters enter 2017, the first generation of Expected Credit Loss (ECL) models have generally been developed, and granular transitional impacts quantified.
Looking ahead to 2017, one of the most important areas of regulatory development that we see in financial services is rising supervisory expectations of firms’ cyber resilience. A spate of recent incidents of cyber-crime and IT failure have sharpened the focus of firms on their cyber preparedness, but management and boards should now also expect to be more routinely challenged by their supervisors on how well they understand and what they have done to limit their exposure to cyber and IT risks.
2016 has been another difficult year for the financial sector, with economic and political uncertainty complicating the completion of the post-crisis regulatory repair agenda.
Three years on from CRD IV/CRR being finalised, the EU’s banking sector now faces a revised Capital Requirements Directive and Capital Requirements Regulation (CRD V and CRR II), and a host of other legislative amendments, in a 500+ page package published today. These revisions to CRD V/CRR II and amendments to the Bank Recovery and Resolution Directive (BRRD) are likely to stretch significant regulatory change into the next decade.